Rolling the Dice: How Many Occurrences Have Occurred?

The insurance litigation that followed from the World Trade Center tragedy has produced two decisions. The two decisions are diametrically opposed. First, the court found that for those insurance policies that contained a definition of the policy term “occurrence,” the collapse of the two buildings constituted a single occurrence. SR International Business Insurance Co., Ltd. v. World Trade Center Properties LLC, et al., 222 F. Supp. 2d 385 (S.D.N.Y. 2002), aff'd, World Trade Center Properties, LLC, et al. v. Hartford Fire Insurance Co., et al., 345 F.3d 154 (2d Cir. 2003). Then, after a trial involving those policies that did not define the term “occurrence,” the jury held that the collapse of the two buildings constituted two occurrences. This incongruous result demonstrates two truths. First, when the insurance industry wants to, it can define the term ‘occurrence’ in a totally unambiguous manner:

Occurrence shall mean all losses or damages that are attributable directly or indirectly to one cause or to one series of similar causes. All such losses will be added together and the total amount of such losses will be treated as one occurrence irrespective of the period of time or area over which such losses occur.

See WilProp form insurance policy for the World Trade Center, cited at 345 F.3d at 160.     

Explaining preferences for redistribution: A unified framework to account for institutional approaches and economic self‐interest for the case of monetary transfers for families and children

Explanations of different patterns of preferences for redistribution either highlight the role of the institutional framework in a country or highlight the importance of self‐interest and rational expectations. The study introduces a unified approach to explain differences in preferences for redistributive measures for the case of intergenerational monetary transfers for families and children. Both explanatory approaches are integrated into the action‐based Model of Frame Selection that incorporates normative motives and economic self‐interest into the process of decision making. Using a large sample that deals with questions on the approval of public policies for families and accounts for the normative importance of children and family life in Germany, evidence is provided that both approaches are valid in explaining preferences for government transfers.     

LONG‐TERM CRIME DESISTANCE AND RECIDIVISM PATTERNS—EVIDENCE FROM THE ESSEX COUNTY CONVICTED FELON STUDY*

Two conflicting definitions of desistance exist in the criminology literature. The first definition is instantaneous desistance in which an offender simply chooses to end a criminal career instantaneously moving to a zero rate of offending ( Blumstein et al., 1986 ). The second definition views desistance as a process by which the offending rate declines steadily over time to zero or to a point close to zero ( Bushway et al., 2001 ; Laub and Sampson, 2001 ; Leblanc and Loeber, 1998 ). In this article, we capitalize on the underlying assumptions of several parametric survival distributions to gain a better understanding of which of these models best describes actual patterns of desistance. All models are examined using 18 years of follow‐up data on a cohort of felony convicts in Essex County, NJ. Our analysis leads us to three conclusions. First, some people have already desisted at the beginning of the follow‐up period, which is consistent with the notion of “instantaneous desistance.” Second, a three‐parameter model that allows for a turning point in the risk of recidivism followed by a long period of decline fits the data best. This conclusion suggests that for those offenders active at the start of the study period, the risk of recidivism is declining over time. However, we also find that a simpler two‐group model fits the data almost as well and gains superiority in the later years of follow‐up. This last point is particularly relevant as it suggests that the observed gradual decline in the hazard over time is a result of a compositional effect rather than of a pattern of individually declining hazards.     

etworking or otworking vents？

FROM the very day you land in Beijing, either to become a fixed-term＂Jinger＂ or to make Beijing or some other city your medium- to long-term home （as with many of us）, all you need to become involved in the non- stop networking events put on for us in China is an email ad- dress. You will soon find that with a modicum of effort you are subscribed to tens if not hundreds of networking event mailing lists. In this article I＇d like to offer a perspective on these gatherings, accord- ing to my time in China （nine years and counting）, and some suggestions on how to get the most out of them.     

SOCIAL CONCERN AND CRIME: MOVING BEYOND THE ASSUMPTION OF SIMPLE SELF‐INTEREST

Most leading crime theories and crime‐control policies are based on the assumption that people are self‐interested. But recent work in a variety of fields has challenged this assumption, suggesting that people are both self‐interested and socially concerned. Social concern involves biologically based inclinations that sometimes lead people to give more consideration to others than to their own interests. These inclinations include caring about others, forming close ties to and cooperating with others, following certain moral intuitions, and conforming. This article describes the nature of and evidence for social concern, as well as the ways in which social factors shape social concern. The article then presents a theory of social concern and crime. Social concern has direct, indirect, mediating, and conditioning effects on crime. Although social concern generally reduces the likelihood of crime, it has little effect on or increases crime under certain conditions.     

China Challenges Unipolar Naval Power in Asia

The recurrent crises emanating from North Korea, and the response to them, is testing US‐China relations and drawing the new boundaries of power in East Asia. The head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff and the former South Korean national security advisor address this development.     

THE PLACE OF CONTEXT: A THEORY AND STRATEGY FOR CRIMINOLOGY'S HARD PROBLEMS

I present a theoretical framework and analytic strategy for the study of place as a fundamental context in criminology, with a focus on neighborhood effects. My approach builds on the past 15 years of research from the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods and from a recent book unifying the results. I argue that “ecometrics” can be applied at multiple scales, and I elaborate core principles and guiding hypotheses for five problems: 1) legacies of inequality and developmental neighborhood effects; 2) race, crime, and the new diversity; 3) cognition and context, above all the social meaning of disorder; 4) the measurement and sources of collective efficacy in a cosmopolitan world; and 5) higher order structures beyond the neighborhood that arise in complex urban systems. Although conceptually distinct, these hard problems are interdependent and ultimately linked to a frontier in criminology: contextual causality.